Total Points Strategy

The Total Points

As we have already learned from our own experience or from reading the precious helpful articles about the NFL betting lines and the Total Points wager, we should already know what it is and how it works. A little refresher is that the Total Points bet is when a bettor wagers on whether or not the final total score (both teams’ scores added) will be more or less than the value given at the online sportsbook. We will be taking a look at some strategies that sports bettors use when trying to pick the winning bet using the total points wager.

There is a basic strategy that involves comparing the values given at the sportsbook, as well as a more in-depth strategy that makes use of certain team statistics involving their average points; it will be accompanied by a real life example so you can picture it better. Remember that the Total Points bet can also be called Over/Under, Totals, and Total Score, so do not get confused if you encounter different names on the betting lines.

Total Points Basic Strategy

When a sports bettor takes a look at the total points wager on the NFL betting lines, they will see a certain value, sometimes they are low, other times they are high, and most of the time we find that they are somewhere in the middle, and that will tell a bettor a lot about that particular matchup and which teams to research.

Low Total Points

It is considered to be a low total points value if the NFL betting lines are predicting the matches to end with a final total score of 40 points or less. When this occurs, there are many different possibilities. There could be two strong defensive teams or there could also be two teams that have trouble maintaining possession of the ball, thus giving them a negative turnover ratio.

So when a bettor encounters these kinds of matchups, they need to look at both team’s defense, as well as their turnover ratio. If both teams have good defenses, but one team has a better offense and has proven to be able to beat strong defenses in previous matches, check out how much the total scores were for those games.

High Total Points

There are high total points when the NFL betting line value is anything at or above 50 points. The match-ups tend to be between two strong offensive teams, with weaker defenses, or between one strong offensive team against a weak or average offensive/defensive team. It usually requires that a team have a good offense if they want to score a lot of points, as even an average defense will be able to stop certain plays and keep the scoring average.

When a bettor encounters these kinds of NFL matches they should check and see if both teams have great offenses and weaker defenses or if one team has a much better offense than the other team’s offense and defense. By comparing this data, the bettor can see whether or not the final total points will actually be that high.

Medium Total Points

The medium total points is right in the middle, between the low and the high total points values. It is any NFL betting line value that is between 40 and 50 points; which the majority of them are. As this tends to be the majority of match-ups in the NFL, it tends to happen between teams that have inverse strengths and weaknesses. In other words, strong offensive team vs. strong defensive team, and vice versa.

These match-ups are a lot tougher to gauge just by looking over general team information. It will require the bettor to dig deeper and figure out just how well each team has performed under similar circumstances during the season in order to figure out whether they should wager on Over or Under.

Total Points System

There is an easy to understand and use system that incorporates various factors surrounding the teams that would be playing in a specific match, and by using that information the bettor can easily come up with a predicted value to compare against the values given on the betting lines. There are several steps to this system, and we will go through each and explain them in detail.

Step 1: Gather the Information

This is the most crucial step. The bettor needs to gather the relevant information of both teams in the matchup and splitting them up into Home team and Away team. This information consists of the average points scored and the average points scored against.

Average Points Scored Average Points Scored Against
Team 1 (Home) 25 Points 19 Points
Team 2 (Away) 23 Points 26 Points

There is a catch though. The average points scored and average points scored against have to be specific to the current situation. In other words, for the Home team, the bettor would gather the average points scored during the games they have played at home and not the ones played on the road. The same thing would apply to the Away team, they would need to gather the average points scored and average points scored against during the games they have played on the road and not the ones played at home.

Once you have gathered all of the information, you are now ready to start calculating the possible final total score.

Step 2: Calculate the Minimum Score

The minimum score is the lowest predicted amount of points that could be scored during this specific matchup. It is easily calculated, as the bettor just needs to add the two lowest values from the table. It does not matter if both values are from the same team.

23 + 19 = 42 Points

Step 3: Calculate the Maximum Score

The maximum score is the highest predicted amount of points that could be scored during this specific matchup. To calculate the maximum score the bettor will add the two highest values from the table. It does not matter if both values are from the same team.

25 + 26 = 51 Points

Step 4: Calculate the Predicted Average

This is the final step in the process where the bettor has to use the minimum and maximum predicted scores to find the predicted average. The bettor will simply add the minimum and maximum points and then divide by two.

(51 + 42) / 2 = 46.5 Points

Once the bettor has this value, they can compare it against the value that is given on the betting line for this particular NFL matchup. If this value is lower than the sportsbook value, they would place a wager on Under or if the value is higher than the sportsbook value, they would place a wager on Over./

Quick and easy, now let’s see how it does in a real NFL matchup.

Total Points System Example

First we need to select what NFL matchup we are going to use, so we can start finding the information on both teams.

Now that we have determined we are going to use the Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup. Now we need to find the average points scored and average points scored against each team; keeping in mind which team is Home and which is Away.

Step 1: Gather the Information

Average Points Scored Average Points Scored Against
Indianapolis Colts (Home) 21.75 Points 20.5 Points
Miami Dolphins (Away) 19.5 Points 19 Points

Step 2: Calculate the Minimum Score

Taking the two lowest values from the table will give you the minimum score.

19.5 + 19 = 38.5 Points

Step 3: Calculate the Maximum Score

Taking the two highest values from the table will give you the maximum score.

21.75 + 20.5 = 42.25 Points

Step 4: Calculating the Predicted Average

Now we take both of those values and add them together, and then divide them by two to get the predicted average points that would be scored during the Dolphins vs. Colts matchup.

(42.25 + 38.5) / 2 = 40.375 Points

Now all we have to do is compare the predicted average with the value that is given on the NFL betting line for this matchup and then determine which bet to wager on.

Sportsbook Value Predicted Average Wager On
43 Points 40.375 Under

As you can see, there are several different strategies that a sports bettor can use when placing a bet on the Total Points of a NFL matchup. There are other different betting systems and strategies, so do not limit yourself to just these. Learn to tweak and adapt the strategies to your own betting habits, and you will start to create your own winning predictions.