Money Line Strategy

The Money Line

We should all know the basics about the Money Line wager, involving what it is and how to calculate the payout. We now move into a more strategic portion of the series where the sports bettor will be able to look at the NFL betting lines and use the money line wager to their advantage. There will also be several tips on what information to use when determining the outcome of a NFL match, before ever placing the wager. These are simple guidelines and strategies, so feel free to modify and adapt anything you see here in order to make a more accurate prediction.

We will start discussing the basic strategy of simply looking at the money line on the NFL betting lines and determining what possible outcomes could happen. We will also explain a simple to use betting system that can be used to more accurately predict the winner. When it comes to the money line wager, bettors also need to know a few tips that could help them win more bets.

The Basic Strategy: Looking and Comparing

When you arrive at any online sportsbook and are at the NFL betting lines, take a look at the values that are given under the Money Line. There are three possibilities that could occur, and happen most often in the NFL. We all know that there are really good teams, average teams, and a few teams that are having a horrible season. As such, we can assume that at any point in time, these teams will all have to play each other, and that is reflected in the money line.

Close Matches

Close matches usually happen between two teams that are equally balanced when it comes to performance, whether both teams have a good offense or defense, or one team has a good offense and the other has a good defense. It can also be that a weak team vs. weak team, average team vs. average team, or strong team vs. strong team. During these close matches, the money line odds will also be close together.

It is considered to be a close match if both team’s odds are between 100 and 200, regardless of whether one team is the Favorite or the Underdog. As this would be considered a close match, the bettor will have to go on and do further research and analysis to determine which team they would bet on.

Blow Out Matches

Blow out matches are when the two teams in a particular matchup are at extreme opposites. These match-ups usually consist of strong teams vs. weak teams or average teams with better defense vs. weak teams. Blow-outs do not happen all that often, but there are times when a team gets completely shut down by the other.

When there is a high degree of separation between the two team’s odds, where both values are high, this usually means that one team has a big advantage over the other. When looking at the money line, the bettor will be able to notice if there is a big gap; these matches usually have odds ranging between 300 and 600. Sometimes there may be odds much bigger than this, but as the game day approaches, odds tend to level out and lower.

Average Matches

There are a majority of average matches when looking at the NFL betting lines. The reason is that most teams in the NFL have average performances. These teams tend to have one of three things, a good defense, a good offense, or an average offense and defense.

 

These matches are, as eloquently as I can put it, average. These usually occur between a strong team vs. average team, or an average team vs. weak team. During these match-ups, it is important for the bettor to get a good grasp of what aspects each team has that could influence the game. Whether it is a good rush defense, and the other team relies on rush plays to score or a team that has a lot of turnovers vs. a team that does a good job of gaining possession.

Money Line Strategy: Points System

When researching and finding data on each of the teams that will be playing against each other, it is important to know which data is more important than the other. This is why it is a good idea to list the items that are involved with a NFL team winning a game. For example, there is the offensive and defense, and even special teams could be involved. Now, break each of those systems down.

Offense Defense Special Teams
Passing Yards Rushing Yards Average Touchdowns Average Score For Pass attempts vs. Pass completions Turnover Ratio Passing Yards Against Rushing Yards Against Average Score Against Interceptions – Forced Fumbles Sacks Kick/Punt Return Yards Scored off of Returns Field Goal Percentage Kicker Accuracy Kick/Punt Yards

There are a lot of different stats and data that could all be applied to why a team plays better than their opponents. This is where the sports bettor has to start going from most to least important factors that could influence the match and assign them points depending on their level of importance.

For instance, this quick little table is a good start to figuring out which team could be the match winner:

Points Given For

Points Assigned

Better Passing Offense 10
Better Rushing Offense 8
Better Pass Defense 8
Better Rush Defense 6
Better QB Rating 5
Better Kicker 5
Most Defensive Sacks 5
Better Turnover Ratio 5
Most 3rd Down Completions 4
Most 1st Downs 3
Home Team 2

There are many other factors that can be placed in this list, so give it a try and add some of your own to see just how accurate the predictions end up being. When you use more variables with which to compare and contrast against, the more accurate the prediction will be. Remember, this is a prediction, not a solid fact, and as such there is always a degree of risk of failure. That is why it is important to continue tweaking and improving the list so that the risk lowers.

Example of Betting on the Money Line

Using this NFL matchup and NFL betting line, we will conduct our little experiment.

For the purpose of this example we will just use some of the general data that we can find about each team and use that information to fill in the table.

Step 1: Compare and Contrast

During this step it would be wise to compare the stats that you have been finding on each team. It is good to compare one team’s offense vs. the other team’s offense, and so on. Once the bettor gets into more detail, they can start comparing the offense vs. defense and vice versa. This way, the bettor can see how each team will be able to perform better against the other.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: VS. San Diego Chargers Offense:
   
 
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: VS. San Diego Chargers Defense:
   

Step 2: Assign Points

Here we will use all of the information we have acquired and start assigning points to the team that fulfills the requirements. In the end, all the bettor will have to do is check out the points assigned, and the team with higher points would be the predicted winner.

Kansas City Chiefs San Diego Chargers
Better Passing Offense 10
Better Rushing Offense 8
Better Pass Defense 8
Better Rush Defense 6
Better QB Rating 5
Better Kicker 5
Most Defensive Sacks 5
Better Turnover Ratio 5
Most 3rd Down Completions 4
Most 1st Downs 3
Home Team 2
Total Points: 29 32

From just this small amount of information, we can predict that the San Diego Chargers would win this matchup, with how the teams are performing currently. Remember to always use up to date information and data. Do not use data that was acquired from previous years, as they are most likely inaccurate.

This is a simple strategy to use when wanting to determine the match winner, and thus, betting on the right team using the money line on the NFL betting lines.

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