NFL Betting Systems

Betting Systems

We hear a lot about betting systems when searching around for the best sportsbooks and odds, and there are a lot of them floating around. Some may think that all betting systems are a scam and that they do not really work, while others indulge themselves in every system they can get their hands on. A betting system isn’t some magical device or tool that will let the sports bettor pick all of the winning bets; they are more like tools to improve the chances of picking the correct bet. The betting systems that are proven to work and be efficient tend to be based on data and statistics that the bettor can find and record.

Using Betting Systems

A bettor should always be wary of those systems that claim to be “100% accurate”, as that is impossible, or else that person would not be giving it out freely and instead using it themselves to get rich. They have to search for systems that use quantifiable data, such as average points scored, and that have a proven win rate of more than 51%. If you cannot find a system that can be trusted, simply test the system out a few times, without actually placing any money on them, and check to see how well they perform. The bettor would obviously have to use a betting system that is designed specifically for the NFL, or else it just won’t work.

There are two different methods a bettor can use in order to use a betting system; to find and use an already created betting system or create their own betting system. We will be focusing mainly on using betting systems that are already available and have a track record to prove their efficiency.

The NFL can be said that it is split into two or three sections, the regular season, the playoffs, and the Super Bowl. As most of the time is spent playing the regular season, this is when the bettor would benefit the most from a good betting system. This betting system is a little complicated, but once a bettor understands the basics of it, they will be able to use it easily.

Regular Season: Point Differential System

This system makes use of the points scored and points allowed per game of each NFL team. For this system to work, the teams in that matchup should have already played at least 3 games; this is to get the most accurate data possible, the more matches that have been played, the more accurate the calculations. The first key pieces of information a bettor needs to acquire are the team’s stats; average points scored and points allowed. We will pretend they have already played 4 matches previously to this upcoming match.

Home Stats

The bettor will acquire the information for the Home Team’s average points scored and points allowed over the span of the 4 matches.

 

Home Team

Points Scored

Points Allowed

24.25

22.25

 

The bettor would then have to figure out the average scores for each of their opponents, and then get the average score of those four.

 

Team

Points Scored

Points Allowed

Opponent 1 22.2 21.5
Opponent 2 20.7 21.7
Opponent 3 25.6 23.9
Opponent 4 19.6 23.4

Average Points:

22.025 22.625
 

Away Team Stats

The bettor has to do the same thing, but with the Away Team this time.

 

Away Team

Points Scored

Points Allowed

23.8

22.4

 

As well as for the four opponents they have previously played.

 

Team

Points Scored

Points Allowed

Opponent 1 23.2 21.4
Opponent 2 20.3 20.7
Opponent 3 18.3 19.6
Opponent 4 22.1 23.7

Average Points:

20.98 21.35
 

Calculating the Averages

This step would require the bettor to compare the Home Team and Away Team averages against their opponents in order to figure out how well they have each performed.

 

Home Points Scored

Opponents Points Scored

Calculation

Percentage

24.25 22.025 (24.25 / 22.025) 1.1

Home Points Allowed

Opponents Points Allowed

Calculation

Percentage

22.25 22.625 (22.25 / 22.625) 0.98
 

Away Points Scored

Opponents Points Scored

Calculation

Percentage

23.8 20.98 (23.8 / 20.98) 1.13

Away Points Allowed

Opponents Points Allowed

Calculation

Percentage

22.4 21.35 (22.4 / 21.35) 1.04
 

Calculating the Performance Figures

Once the bettor has these percentages, they will then compare the Home Team’s ratings against the Away Team’s percentages. It is done in order to get the performance figures of each team.

 

Offense Percentage

Defense Percentage

Home Team

1.1

0.98

Away Team

1.13

1.04

 
How To Calculation Performance Figure
Home Team (HT OP + AT DP) / 2 (1.1 + 1.04) / 2 1.07
Away Team (AT OP + HT DP) / 2 (1.13 + 0.98) / 2 1.055
 

HT = Home Team / AT= Away Team / OP = Offensive Percentage / DP = Defensive Percentage

Calculating the Offensive Number

This is where the bettor will use the average points scored and allowed for the Home and Away team’s and use it in order to get an offensive number.

 

Points Scored

Points Allowed

Home Team

24.25

22.25

Away Team

23.8

22.4

 
How To Calculation Offensive Number
Home Team (HT PS + AT PA) / 2 (24.25 + 22.4) / 2 23.325
Away Team (AT PS + HT PA) / 2 (23.8 + 22.25) / 2 23.025
 

HT = Home Team / AT= Away Team / PS = Points Scored / PA = Points Allowed

Calculating the Predicted Points Scored

This step is done in order to find the Home and Away team’s potential points scored during the match up.

 
Performance Figure (PF) Offensive Number (ON)
Home Team (HT) 1.07 23.325
Away Team (AT) 1.055 23.025
 
How To Calculation Predicted Score
Home Team (PF * ON) + 1.5 (1.07 * 23.325) + 1.5 26.46
Away Team (PF * ON) – 1.5 (1.055 * 23.025) – 1.5 22.8
 

The Final Predicted Outcome

Using the predicted score, the bettor can get a somewhat accurate view of what the score would look like during this particular matchup.

 
Home Team Away Team
26.46 Points 22.8 Points
 

This means the Home Team is predicted to win, 26 – 23.

Play-Offs and Super Bowl: Point System

This systems is a little easier to understand and quicker to do, although it does involve different types of stats. During the matchup, the bettor will assign certain amount of points to each team depending on certain criteria.

 

Points Given

If a Team

10

Has won a Super Bowl in last three years

8

Whose opponent is playing in first Super Bowl of franchise history

8

Allowed the fewer defensive rushes

7

Best straight up win/loss record

7

Most offensive rushes

5

Lower defensive rush average per carry

4

Best net kick/punt touchdown returns

4

Better record against the point spread

4

Superior net penalty yards

3.5

Best yards per pass attempt

3.5

Given up the fewest points

3.5

Allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns

3

Has most sacks

2.5

Fewest offensive pass attempts
 

Whichever team ends up having the most points can be said to be the predicted winner of the match.

The Betting Systems

These two betting systems are just a small part of what a bettor can find online, so they should always be aware of the potential a system can have. The golden rules that a bettor should follow are simple:

  1. NEVER trust a system that says it is “100% Accurate”
  2. TEST any system you find before using it to place real-money bets with
Remember, if a certain betting system is working, check and see WHY it is working so well, maybe you can apply those same principles to other aspects of NFL betting or other sports all together.

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