NFL Betting Predictions

How to make a Betting Prediction

Predicting game outcomes in NFL Football

For those sports fans and bettors that truly enjoy the process of placing a proper wager on the NFL match-ups, should be able to become good at predicting the outcomes. To predict an outcome in the NFL, would be to accurately foretell what will happen during a certain match, half, quarter, or even play. This of course, depends greatly on the bettor’s ability to research, analyze, and understand the different approaches, statistics, and other information that could in fact lead to an accurate prediction.

Prediction Components: What goes into making predictions on NFL games

  1. Statistics

    This is the first aspect a good sports bettor has to tackle, the statistics. The NFL is a very point driven sport, which makes it very easy to analyze and understand. For instance, the league keeps tracks of all of the important factors that come into play, whether it is for the team in general or for each individual player. All of these different factors and statistics are important to know, as well as understand how they could affect the outcome of a game.

  2. Team Stats

    The overall team statistics encompass the general offensive and defensive aspects of a NFL team. These aspects would include the Average Score, Total Yards, Passing Yards, and Rushing Yards; both for and against. There are many different available places a bettor can go to retrieve this information, or they could even compile it themselves, but that would be a large amount of time to invest and the information is already readily and freely available.

    This will start to show the sports bettor how well the team performs overall. They can use this information to compare the team’s playing in the upcoming matchup in order to get a good side-by-side comparison. It is also important to take into account the injured players, as they may have been important to the success of the team. If a key player is out due to injury, this could affect the rest of the team, so the bettor has to take that into account when analyzing the stats.

  3. Player Stats

    The individual player stats are just as accessible as the team stats, but they are a lot more complex, as they are more specific to the player’s performance and role. There are different roles within the offense and the defense that need to be taken into account, as well as to be analyzed and then compared against the other team’s players.

    The image below is the individual player stats of a QB, in this case Eli Manning. It shows the various different offensive duties he has to perform and how well he performed them.

    This may seem like a lot of information, and it is, but it is necessary to at least understand the basics of what these statistics can tell a bettor.

Using the Information

This can be an overwhelming amount of information for any sports bettor to undertake. This is why there are a few methods a bettor can make their predictions in an easier manner. There are betting systems, whether the bettor uses one or they create their own, which can greatly diminish the amount of actual tedious work the bettor has to do.

Betting Systems

Betting systems are tools that many bettor use to make their life easier when wanting to predict the outcome of a NFL match. They take specific information, sometimes it depends on how well the team has performed on the Road vs. when they play at Home or their average offensive and defensive performance over the span of five or six games. There are many different systems out there, and the bettor must be aware that not all systems are effective.

In order to prove a system works, the bettor would have to test them out. Sort of like test driving a used car to make sure it runs properly. However, as the test driver of the betting system, you should never actually use it to place bets, merely check and see whether or not it is accurate or efficient. If the betting system consistently gets a 55% or more winning bets, then it is safe to assume that the system is a good one.

Creating a Betting System

For those sports bettors that are too skeptical to use or even test the betting systems that are already out there, they can try and create their own betting system. This is a long, time consuming process, but when it is done, if done correctly, they could end up with a winning betting system that will be effective for the coming seasons.

The sports bettor would need to compile all of the stats, team and player. From this information, they need to come up with a logical and sound hypothesis. For example,

“Teams with better defense that have won on the Road are more likely to beat teams with better offenses”

From that statement, the bettor would analyze the teams with better defense that have won on the road, and every time there is a matchup between them and a better offensive team, will be able to prove whether or not that statement is accurate.

Remember, bettors are looking for a winning system, not a perfect system; these do not exist, so be careful. A winning system should be accurate 55% or more of the time it is employed. If the bettor sees that this type of system is not winning, then they need to improve the system or discard it and create a new one. There are systems that employ various different aspects, such as the Offense vs. Defense overall, as well as different specific positions such as the Wide Receivers, Running Backs, and the Quarterback. Using more variables could improve the system, but if the variables are used incorrectly, it could end up making the system inefficient.

Measuring Success in Predicting NFL Match-ups

Sports bettors should always keep in mind that this is a way of predicting an outcome, not being able to read the future. A prediction is just that, an accurate guess using logic and information to base that decision off of. So, use your abilities as best you can, and start predicting the next game’s winners.