Creating a NFL Betting System

NFL Betting Systems

As an avid NFL fans and sports bettor, I have been able to find countless different betting systems that focus primarily on the NFL. The problem with most of these systems is that they are not as reliable as one would want to believe, while other work pretty well but are only geared towards certain aspects, like which team will win. That is fine, if the only wager you want to bet on is the Money Line, but as there are so many other types of bets, it would be silly not to take advantage of them. The best methods are those that you personally create from experience, which is what this guide is here for, to help sports bettors create their own NFL betting system.

Information

The first aspect of creating a productive betting system is to have all of the information and data at hand. There are obviously different types of information, such as the NFL statistics and even betting habits. In order to create a good betting system, both of these pieces of information is needed; since most good systems depend on handicapping and an ability to learn playing patterns.

NFL Statistics

The NFL statistics can be a good mix between the overall team stats and certain, key player stats. The overall team stats will give the bettor a broader view of how a particular NFL team performs, especially when comparing two teams against each other. Looking at the individual players that make up these teams is also important, but a bettor should focus on the primary defensive and offensive players. If they were to include every single player, they will be doing more work than necessary.

Take for instance a matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Houston Texans, the bettor would line up their team stats, and compare them.

 
Seattle Seahawks
 
Houston Texans
 
 

Bettors need to remember that these stats change weekly, as the regular season progresses, so they have to keep updating the stats. The player stats can also be compared in order to provide a clearer view of how each team could perform if these two teams were to play each other.

Betting Habits

What do I mean by betting habits? I mean how you, the sports bettor, places bets during any given NFL matchup and how you determine which wagers to place on the different types of bets. More often than not, the bettor will use the handicapping information like the NFL stats to create a good prediction of what the outcome of the match will be. What the bettor needs to do is look for productive and positive patterns within their betting habits and rationale.

For instance, using the same example above where the Houston Texans play the Seattle Seahawks, the bettor will place wagers on the money line, point spread, and the total points. What a bettor needs to do is keep track of why they placed the bet that way, as well as whether or not the bet won or lost.

 

Wager Type

Based On

Performed

Money Line (-110) Texans vs. Seahawks team stats Won
Spread Bet (+3.5 +120) Total points for each team Lost
Totals (Ov 39.5 -110) Use of an average points system Won
 

The bettor should do this for each bet they place, in order to be able to see which bets won based on certain information. This will start to show the bettor certain patterns that they can use further along when creating their betting system.

Analyze the Reasons

Just simply recording all the data does not mean that a bettor is ready to start their betting system. They also need to make sure that the data recorded is valid, and not just a one-time fluke. This is why a bettor needs to ask themselves several questions to make sure. Asking at least 5 – 10 Why, How, and What, questions should help narrow down which data can be used with more prejudice.

A few examples could be:

  • Why did the team win?
  • How did the team win, is it repeatable?
  • What did they do in order to beat the other team?

Questions like these will help the bettor understand why a team stats are the way they are; even help understand why a team may perform better against one team and not the other.

Making the Betting System

Once the bettor has all of the above information, they can start making their betting system. They can go about it in different fashions, by either assigning certain points to each team based on the appropriate stats or they can even plug in numbers in order to calculate a possible outcome. A good system is usually specific to one goal; in this case we will make a system for each of the common betting types, money line, point spread, and the total points.

 

Bet Type

Possible Data to Use

Money Line
  • Defensive stats
  • Offensive stats
  • Player stats compared
Spread Bet
  • Average points for
  • Average points against
Totals (Over/Under)
  • Average scores (Home vs. Away)
  • Calculated average score for specific match
 

Money Line System

The bettor can create a table, with the overall team stats, and even include certain key player stats that can help in calculating which team has the best chances of winning the match. This will be a system based on assigning certain points to each team based on their performance.

 

Points Given For

Points Assigned

Better Passing Offense 10
Better Rushing Offense 8
Better Pass Defense 8
Better Rush Defense 6
Better QB Rating 5
Better Kicker 5
Most Defensive Sacks 5
Least Turnovers (Interceptions, fumbles) 5
Most 3rd Down Completions 4
Most 1st Downs 3
Home Team 2
 

Then the bettor simply has to assign these points to the two teams, based off of the information and stats, and the team that has the highest amount of points, is predicted to be the winner. Remember to take into account home field advantage, as this plays an important role.

Spread Bet System

The bettor can figure out how each team in the matchup has been able to score, as well as defend against the score. The bettor can simply take the average point difference the teams have been able to achieve and compare them.

 

Team 1

Team 2

Average Point Difference: 9 Points Average Point Difference: 15.5 Points
 

Once the bettor has these two figures, they can either:

  1. Get the average of these two figures
  2. Find the average point difference on the road vs. at home

Either way, this should give the bettor a much more accurate prediction of what the point spread will likely be.

Total Points System

The total point bet depends on the total amount of points that is scored during a specific match. However, the bettor needs to keep in mind that a team playing on the road performs differently than when they play at home. This is why they should only use the average scores depending on whether the team is Away or at Home.

 

Average Points Scored

Average Points Scored Against

Team 1 (Home) 25.6 Points 21.3 Points
Team 2 (Away) 23.7 Points 24.8 Points
 

They would then calculate the Minimum and Maximum possible scores, and then finally get the Average Points scored; which will be compared against the sportsbook value.

 

Minimum Score

Maximum Score

Average Score

21.3 + 23.7 = 45 Points 24.8 + 25.6 = 50.4 Points (45 + 50.4) / 2 = 47.7 Points
 

Using the Betting Systems

A bettor should always keep in mind that no betting system is 100% accurate, but instead should aim for accuracy higher than 54%; this will get them a profit. So, do not get desperate or freak out if a certain system is not working, simply revise your information, and improve the system so that it starts to perform better.