Week 9 Upsets Little Effect On Betting Week 10 Picks

10

Nov 2015

POSTED IN NFL + Sportsbooks | no comments

Week 10 betting predictions
Sunday’s games came with a high price for fans, as betting on the favorites was not the way to go, with underdogs went 6-5 in beating the spread, and not only that, but four of the games they outright won. Despite some of the big time favorites losing during Week 9, including the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, and the Atlanta Falcons, they are still being placed as favorites during this week’s matchups. These upsets can happen from time to time, but the majority of the time, what the experts pick is usually what happens. Here is this week’s games and betting odds.
Game Spread O/U BleacherReport.com Picks ELO Picks
Bills @ Jets Jets (-2.5) 42.5 Jets Jets (56%)
Jaguars @ Ravens Ravens -6) 48 Jaguars Ravens (80%)
Lions @ Packers Packers (-11.5) 47.5 Packers Packers (85%)
Dolphins @ Eagles Eagles (-7) 46.5 Eagles Eagles (73%)
Browns @ Steelers Steelers (-4.5) 41 Steelers Steelers (83%)
Bears @ Rams Rams (-8) NL Rams Rams (71%)
Cowboys @ Bucs Bucs (-1.5) 43 Cowboys Cowboys (59%)
Panthers @ Titans Panthers (-5) 43.5 Panthers Panthers (81%)
Saints @ Redskins Saints (-1.5) 50.5 Saints Saints (54%)
Vikings @ Raiders NL NL Raiders Vikings (56%)
Chiefs @ Broncos Broncos (-7) 41.5 Broncos Broncos (76%)
Patriots @ Giants Patriots (-7.5) 55 Patriots Patriots (72%)
Cardinals @ Seahawks Seahawks (-3) 45 Cardinals Seahawks (63%)
Texans @ Bengals Bengals (-11) 47 Bengals Bengals (84%)
You can tell that the system based on math and an elegant equation is usually in line with what the sportsbooks predict will win, while those sports experts that base their predictions on experience tend to sometimes pick the underdog in certain situations. For instance, when the game is close and could swing either way, underdogs have a higher chance of actually beating the spread; not to mention outright winning. With the ELO system, you can use the percent likelihood as a way to see if a game will be close or not. In other words, for those teams that have a 60% or lower could have problems when facing those opponents. This would make betting more risky, rather than simply always going with the favorite, and if Week 9 taught you anything, it is that upsets can and will happen in football.

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