Interesting NFL Prediction System, Elo Ratings

10

Sep 2015

POSTED IN Football Betting Tips + NFL | no comments

FiveThirtyEight NFL predictions using Elo Ratings The popular website, FiveThirtyEight.com came up with a very interesting system for predicting which NFL team has the best odds of winning a game, as well as the predicted point spreads. This is a great tool that they used during the 2014 football season, and are going to continue using during the 2015 season, with a few changes to the formula to make it even more accurate than before. It is a great tool that any handicapper can use when trying to make their own weekly predictions. The way the Elo Ratings work is that it takes the and estimates each team’s skill level using only the final scores and locations of each game. You can check out their newly added auto-updating Elo Ratings page to always stay up to date on the latest odds and predicted point spreads. They are essentially using the same formula as they were in 2014, but have made a few changes to make it even more accurate. One of the main changes is:
  • Changed the 1500 rating of each team to 1300 for new franchises and a 1505 rating for each new season. This helps balance out against the low ratings assigned to expansion teams, though it does mean the average team no longer carries a 1500 Elo rating.
Other than that change to equal out new franchises with regular teams, the Elo system still works the same way. This means that for the 2015 season, all teams will begin with the same rating that they did at the end of the 2014 season; with a slight adjustment due to the regression towards the mean. This makes the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks the highest rated teams, but will start with slightly lower ratings than they had at the end of last season. The lower rating is due to the fact that the season is just starting, and teams have not proven to be worthy of such a high rating. As the season is played, the Elo Ratings will become more and more accurate, as it will have more information to base its formula on, as well as taking into account previous franchise performance. Use this great NFL prediction tool to help you pick the best teams throughout the season.

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